Silver (XAG) Forecast: Silver Bounces While Gold Stalls—Market Eyes Ratio Correction

Silver Holds Gains After Breakout While Gold Reverses from Record High

Silver prices are trading slightly lower Thursday, cooling off after a sharp rally in the previous session that decisively cleared a major technical barrier. While gold stole the spotlight with a surge to new all-time highs, silver quietly strengthened its chart structure.

The recent spike in the gold/silver ratio to a three-year high has brought renewed attention to the metal’s undervaluation relative to gold. Traders are now assessing whether silver can build on this momentum as gold pulls back.

At 12:27 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $33.51, down $0.06 or -0.19%.

Support Established Above Key Technical Zone

The standout move in silver came as it broke above its 50-day moving average at $32.61—a level now acting as a strong support base. This clears the path for a retest of the March high at $34.59, with Thursday’s pullback to $32.70 (+0.29%) looking more like a pause than a shift in trend.

Technical setups favor a continued grind higher, provided silver maintains support above $32.61. Traders are closely watching this zone for confirmation of sustained strength.

Gold Peaks and Reverses, Triggering Ratio Spike

Gold surged to $3,500.20 overnight before reversing in a steep sell-off that marked a potential short-term top. That peak coincided with the gold/silver ratio spiking to 105.77—its highest level in three years and well above the long-term average near 60.

The blowout in the ratio underscores silver’s underperformance and positions it as a value trade for those expecting mean reversion. The ratio spike occurred before gold’s reversal, suggesting silver may start to regain relative strength.

Industrial Demand and Deficit Outlook Remain Intact

While macro concerns like slowing growth and stagflation fears weigh on silver’s industrial narrative, structural support remains. The Silver Institute’s latest 2025 forecast shows a projected 117 million ounce deficit, marking the fifth consecutive year of shortfalls.

Analysts argue that demand tied to the green energy transition will remain relatively resilient, even in a recessionary environment. That longer-term scarcity outlook supports silver’s floor, even if near-term investor flows are still favoring gold.

Forecast: Silver Positioned for Catch-Up Trade

Silver’s breakout above its 50-day moving average and the recent topping action in gold suggest the gold/silver ratio may have peaked. As volatility picks up and recession risks rise, silver could benefit from both technical momentum and relative value positioning.

With $34.59 as the next upside marker, dips are likely to be bought as long as support near $32.61 holds. The imbalance in the gold/silver ratio may be setting the stage for a broader reallocation into silver.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.