S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Remain Volatile

US Stock Market Forecast Video for 08-01-2024

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 initially fell during trading on Friday, but as is typical on a jobs report Friday, we have seen a lot of back and forth and noisy trading. This suggests to me that there are buyers underneath willing to come in and pick this market up, and anytime there is sign of a weakening economy, it seems like traders are willing to come in and buy stocks. This is all about the Federal Reserve, it’s about nothing else at this point, they want cheap money that can lift stocks and help their portfolios. That being said, I think you also have to look at this through the prism of a market that’s been overbought. So, I wouldn’t get overly excited at this point, but it does look like the 4700 level is trying to offer significant support.

While I did suggest that could be supported in the meantime, I really would have liked to see this market pull back to the 50-day EMA to feel a little better about buying it. But if you’re going to put on some short-term trades, you probably have a nice little range here between $4,700 and $4,800 that you can work with. For a longer-term trade though, you really need to see either more sideways action, or a pullback to the 50-day EMA, maybe even the 4500 level.

Both of those levels could be very interesting for value hunters, and it’s probably worth noting that the bond market will have its say as well. If rates start to fall again, that will push stocks higher, unless of course it is a situation where people are piling into the bond market in order to find safety, then it’s a little bit different dynamic to deal with. Regardless, this is a market that everybody seems to think is going higher this year. So at least in the meantime, it’s impossible to sell it. Ultimately, it looks like Wall Street is still willing to bank on the Federal Reserve bailing them out, which is a problem that the Federal Reserve itself has caused.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.