Tesla’s Stock Holds Key to Nasdaq Rebound After Delivery Miss and 6% Drop

Tesla’s Delivery Miss Sparks Sell-Off, Raising Questions About Growth

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) saw its stock slide more than 6% after reporting fourth-quarter deliveries that missed analyst expectations, capping off a year that marked the company’s first annual sales decline in over a decade. This shortfall has triggered concern among investors, although some analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future growth and expansion into autonomous technology.

In Friday’s pre-market session at 09:39 GMT, Tesla is trading $384.59, up $5.31 or 1.40%.

What Drove Tesla’s Stock Down?

Tesla reported delivering 495,930 vehicles globally in Q4, missing Bloomberg’s consensus estimate of 510,400. This modest quarter-over-quarter increase from 463,000 deliveries didn’t meet Wall Street’s hoped-for 500,000+ range. The company’s total 2024 deliveries hit 1.78 million vehicles, falling short of the projected 1.8 million and reflecting a 1.1% decline from 2023. This marked Tesla’s first annual decline, with analysts attributing the miss to aging models and increased competition.

The Model 3 and Model Y made up the bulk of deliveries, accounting for over 1.7 million units. Tesla also produced 459,000 vehicles during Q4. However, the lack of new mass-market models and competitive pricing pressures, especially from Chinese automaker BYD, played a role in the weaker performance. BYD reported 4.3 million passenger vehicle deliveries in 2024, with 1.76 million being pure EVs, closely trailing Tesla’s volume.

Investor Reaction and Analyst Outlook

Tesla shares closed Thursday down 6.1%, reflecting disappointment over the delivery miss. However, analysts from Wedbush maintained an optimistic stance, characterizing the Q4 figures as “respectable.” They reiterated an Outperform rating and upheld a $515 price target, viewing the sell-off as a buying opportunity.

Wedbush’s Dan Ives highlighted the expected launch of Tesla’s lower-priced EV in early 2025 as a potential growth catalyst, forecasting 20%-30% delivery growth next year. Additionally, he emphasized Tesla’s evolving role as a technology company, driven by advancements in Full Self-Driving (FSD) and upcoming autonomous products like the Cybercab. Ives believes Tesla is on track to reach a $2 trillion market cap within 18 months, supported by AI and self-driving initiatives.

BYD’s Rise and Competitive Pressure

A growing concern for Tesla is the competitive pressure from BYD, which now rivals Tesla’s EV sales globally. BYD’s focus on hybrid models, combined with expanding EV production, has put Tesla’s dominance at risk. This trend underscores the urgency for Tesla to introduce new, more affordable models, such as the anticipated Juniper project, to maintain market share.

Market Forecast – Bearish Near-Term for Nasdaq and Tesla

Tesla’s performance will remain a key driver for the Nasdaq’s next move. The Nasdaq 100 E-mini Futures closed below the 50-day moving average (21,348), signaling potential weakness ahead. Tesla’s stock is hovering near its 50-day MA ($349), and a break lower could push the tech-heavy index toward the 200-day moving average at 20,183.

Conversely, if Tesla finds support and rebounds above $400, it could spark renewed buying interest across the sector, potentially driving the Nasdaq back above its 50-day moving average. Traders will closely watch Tesla’s price action as a barometer for broader tech sentiment, with Tesla’s rebound serving as a potential catalyst to recapture lost ground in the Nasdaq.

In the short term, bearish pressure is likely to persist, but long-term traders may see the current dip as an entry point, banking on growth from Tesla’s upcoming affordable EV, FSD advancements, and autonomous vehicle expansion.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.