US Dollar Forecast: DXY Steady as FOMC Members Speak – Gold, GBP/USD, and EUR/USD Outlook

US Dollar Rises as Strong Jobs Data Weighs on Gold

The US Dollar gained momentum on Friday after better-than-expected jobs data. Non-Farm Employment Change surged to 254K, well above the forecast of 147K, while the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%.

Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4%, signalling a strong labour market. This boosted the dollar and applied pressure on gold prices, which declined as investors moved away from safe-haven assets.

With FOMC members Bowman and Kashkari speaking today, along with the release of the consumer credit data set, markets are closely watching for any indications on future monetary policy that could further influence USD and gold movements.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at $102.472, down 0.02% on the day, and hovering just below the $102.487 pivot point on the 4-hour chart.

Immediate resistance is at $102.692, with further resistance at $102.889 and $103.073. A move above these levels could signal renewed bullish momentum.

On the downside, support stands at $102.354, followed by $102.145 and $101.999. The 50-day EMA at $102.167 is critical support, while the 200-day EMA at $101.451 indicates a broader trend.

If the index remains below $102.487, we could see further downside pressure. A decisive break above the pivot point, however, may change the outlook to bullish. Traders should watch for a breakout above $102.487 to confirm a potential uptrend.

Gold – Technical Analysis 

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,641.85, down 0.22%, indicating a bearish trend. The 2-hour chart shows continued selling pressure below the $2,648.78 pivot point.

A break below $2,640.76 could target $2,631.80. Resistance stands at $2,656.86, with the 50-day EMA capping short-term gains at $2,652.28.

Sterling Rises as UK Housing and Retail Data Hold Steady

Sterling (GBP) gained slightly after the Halifax House Price Index increased 0.3%, matching forecasts. Retail sales also remained stable at 0.8% y/y, indicating resilience in consumer demand.

Positive data could support GBP in the short term, but market sentiment remains cautious amid broader economic uncertainty.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast

The GBP/USD is trading at $1.31145, up 0.12% on the day, but remains below the key pivot point of $1.31330 on the 4-hour chart. Immediate resistance is at $1.31739, followed by $1.32096.

If the pair breaks above these levels, we could see a push toward the 200-day EMA at $1.32397.

On the downside, support is at $1.30688, with further levels at $1.30374 and $1.30023. The 50-day EMA at $1.31450 currently acts as a cap on gains.

A break above $1.31330 would shift the outlook to bullish, while staying below could signal continued pressure on the pair.

For now, the trend remains neutral, but a decisive move above $1.31330 would be key for any further gains.

Euro Falls as German Factory Orders Drop Sharply

The Euro (EUR) weakened after German Factory Orders plunged 5.8% in September, significantly below the expected -1.9%, reflecting a slowdown in industrial demand. Sentix Investor Confidence also improved slightly to -13.8 but remains in negative territory.

Markets are now eyeing Eurozone Retail Sales data and comments from German Buba President Nagel to gauge the outlook for the Euro amidst ongoing economic concerns.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

The EUR/USD is trading at $1.09697, sitting just below the $1.09714 pivot point on the hourly chart. Immediate resistance is at $1.09841, followed by $1.09938 and $1.10039.

A break above these levels could indicate further bullish momentum, especially if the price holds above the 50-day EMA at $1.10017.

On the downside, support stands at $1.09511, with deeper levels at $1.09351 and $1.09197. If the pair breaks below the pivot point, we could see a sharper decline. Until then, the outlook remains cautiously bullish.

Traders should watch for a sustained move above $1.09714 to confirm a potential uptrend, while a break below may signal selling pressure.