US Dollar Forecast: US Jobless Claims and Home Sales Shape Gold, GBP/USD, EUR/USD Outlook

USD Steady as Unemployment Claims to Hit 220K; Gold Awaits Fed Clarity

The US Dollar remains strong ahead of key economic data, with Unemployment Claims expected at 220K compared to 217K previously. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is forecasted to drop to 7.4 from 10.3, signaling potential industrial weakness.

Meanwhile, Gold prices hover near recent highs, supported by geopolitical tensions and safe-haven demand. Traders are closely monitoring Federal Reserve speakers and the CB Leading Index, forecasted at -0.3%, for clues on monetary policy.

Existing Home Sales are expected to rise to 3.95M, reflecting resilience in housing demand. Both gold and the dollar face volatility as markets digest these pivotal events.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at 106.64, up 0.01%, holding above its pivot point at 106.48. This level is critical for sustaining the current bullish trend. Immediate resistance lies at 106.92, with further upside targets at 107.18 and 107.46.

On the downside, key support is found at 106.12, followed by 105.81, providing a safety net if selling pressure intensifies. The 50-day EMA at 106.44 reinforces the bullish sentiment, supported by the 200-day EMA at 105.49, which indicates broader upward momentum.

A sustained break above 106.92 could drive the index toward 107.46, while a move below the pivot could signal a shift toward bearish territory.

Gold – Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,660.63, up 0.39%, supported by bullish sentiment on a 4-hour chart. The price holds above the $2,652.39 pivot, signaling continued momentum. Immediate resistance lies at $2,680.25, with further targets at $2,708.96 and $2,726.69.

On the downside, support is seen at $2,621.99 and $2,595.81. A bullish EMA crossover ($2,628.57 and $2,653.04) reinforces the trend, though a break below $2,652.39 could trigger sharper selling pressure.

Sterling Gains Amid Higher Inflation, Public Borrowing

Sterling (GBP) held firm as UK CPI rose to 2.3% year-on-year, exceeding forecasts of 2.2%. Core CPI also climbed to 3.3%, signaling persistent inflationary pressures.

Producer Price Index (PPI) data revealed modest input growth at 0.1%, below the 0.5% forecast, while output remained flat at 0.0%. Public sector net borrowing surged to £17.4 billion, well above the £13 billion forecast, reflecting fiscal challenges.

Markets now focus on upcoming industrial orders and MPC Member Mann’s speech.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD is trading at $1.26435, down 0.06%, indicating a cautious bearish sentiment on the 4-hour chart. The pair remains below the pivot point at $1.26735, suggesting further downside risk.

Immediate support is seen at $1.26129, with additional levels at $1.25713 and $1.25309 offering a safety net. Resistance is positioned at $1.27154 and $1.27544, with a higher ceiling at $1.27934.

The 50-day EMA at $1.26718 is aligning with the pivot, reinforcing bearish momentum, while the 200-day EMA at $1.27991 highlights a stronger resistance zone above.

Growth Amid Financial Uncertainty

The Eurozone’s economic outlook remains precarious, as the ECB’s Financial Stability Review highlighted elevated vulnerabilities in financial markets and sovereign debt. German PPI met expectations at 0.2%, signaling stable producer prices, while the German 30-year bond auction showed slightly higher yields at 2.55%.

Upcoming Eurozone Consumer Confidence data (-13 forecast) is unlikely to shift sentiment. Elevated borrowing costs and weak fiscal fundamentals continue to weigh on corporate balance sheets, leaving the euro under pressure amidst geopolitical and policy uncertainty.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD is trading at $1.0537, down 0.06%, reflecting mild bearish sentiment on the 4-hour chart. The pair remains below the pivot point at $1.05713, signaling potential downward momentum.

Immediate support lies at $1.05148, with additional levels at $1.04704 and $1.04318 providing a safety net. Resistance levels are positioned at $1.06082 and $1.06439, with a stronger ceiling at $1.06860.

The 50-day EMA at $1.05679 reinforces the bearish outlook, sitting below the 200-day EMA at $1.06734. A symmetrical triangle pattern suggests consolidation, but selling pressure dominates as long as the price remains below the pivot.

A break above $1.05713 could indicate a reversal toward bullish territory, while failure to hold above $1.05148 may accelerate declines.