US Dollar Price Forecast: US CPI in Focus; Gold, GBP/USD, and EUR/USD Outlook

US Dollar Steady; Gold Awaits CPI Data and Jobless Claims

The US dollar held steady ahead of the Core CPI data, expected at 0.2% month-on-month. A higher-than-expected CPI could boost the dollar, pressuring gold prices lower. Conversely, if the data shows softer inflation, gold may rally due to reduced expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes.

Meanwhile, the CPI’s year-on-year figure is anticipated to fall to 2.3% from the previous 2.5%.

Traders are also watching weekly unemployment claims, which are forecasted at 231K. Gold’s movement remains sensitive to these economic indicators, with support at $2,605 and resistance at $2,629.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The Dollar Index (DXY) is hovering around $102.87, virtually unchanged for the day, as it consolidates within a narrow range.

The immediate support is $102.62, just above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $102.47. This level has consistently provided a floor for the DXY in recent sessions.

On the upside, a break above $103.07 could signal renewed bullish momentum, targeting the next resistance at $103.24.

However, a sustained move below $102.62 could open the door for a potential decline toward $102.45 or even $102.28.

The outlook remains cautiously bullish above $102.93, but traders should watch for any sign of a reversal, which may shift the sentiment quickly.

Gold – Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,612.23, up 0.17%, with prices just below the 50-day EMA at $2,629.25, acting as resistance.

A break above $2,630 may push prices to $2,642, while strong support at $2,605 limits downside risk.

If prices fall below $2,605, it could lead to selling pressure towards $2,594 and $2,585. The outlook remains cautiously bullish above $2,605.

Sterling Stable After 10-Year Bond Auction and RICS Data

The British Pound (GBP) held steady following Wednesday’s 10-year bond auction, where yields rose to 4.17% from the previous 3.76%. The RICS House Price Balance also increased to 11%, up from 9%, indicating slight housing market recovery.

Traders now await the Bank of England’s (BoE) Credit Conditions Survey for additional insights into lending conditions and the potential impact on GBP in the short term.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair is trading at $1.30746, up 0.03% as it attempts to build on recent gains.

Despite the slight uptick, the pair is facing strong resistance at $1.31059, just below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $1.31077.

A sustained move above this level could signal further bullish momentum, targeting the next resistance levels at $1.31348 and $1.31654. On the downside, immediate support is seen at $1.30624, with deeper support at $1.30338.

If the pair breaks below $1.30624, it could increase selling pressure, driving GBP/USD lower toward $1.30132.

For now, the outlook remains cautiously bullish above $1.30624, but traders should watch for a clear breakout.

Euro Steady as German Retail Sales Show Mixed Trends

The Euro (EUR) remained stable as German retail sales posted a mixed trend. May and June figures showed declines of -1.4% and -1.1%, respectively. However, July and August data indicated a recovery, with gains of 1.5% and 1.6%.

Traders now focus on Italy’s industrial production and the European Central Bank (ECB) Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts for further guidance on EUR’s near-term direction.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

The EUR/USD is trading around $1.09382, down 0.01% for the day, as selling pressure continues to dominate.

A descending trendline around $1.09457 is reinforcing the bearish outlook, acting as a significant resistance level.

The pair is struggling to break above its 50-day EMA at $1.09775, indicating limited upside potential for now.

Immediate support is at $1.09362, with further downside targets at $1.09237 and $1.09144 if the current trend continues.

A break above $1.09457 could shift the bias, potentially leading to a short-term rally. However, unless it clears the 50-day EMA, the bearish sentiment is likely to persist.