XRP News: Ripple and SEC Showdown Set for 2024; Forecasting the Market Impact

Key Insights:

• XRP rallied by 1.75% on Wednesday, reversing a prior 0.76% decline, maintaining above the $0.50 threshold.
• Ripple, Binance, and Coinbase: SEC’s major targets.
• An SEC setback in the Ripple case could alter its future oversight of the US digital asset domain.

The Wednesday Overview

On Wednesday, XRP  gained 1.75%. Reversing a 0.76% decline from Tuesday, XRP ended the day at $0.5298. XRP avoided sub-$0.50 for the fifth consecutive session.

SEC and Ripple Go to Trial in Q2 2024

The SEC v Ripple case continued to take center stage on Wednesday. Following the administrative interactions between the respective legal counsels and Judge Torres, the SEC v Ripple trial will likely begin in Q2 2024.

Defense Attorney James Filan shared the latest from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case, saying,

“Counsel for Ripple has informed Judge Torres that Ripple is available for trial anytime in the second quarter of 2024.”

While the news may not directly impact XRP, SEC activity continues to draw investor interest. An SEC loss to Ripple could further dent SEC aspirations of overseeing the US digital asset space under existing securities laws.

For XRP and the broader crypto market, a free rein for the SEC to pursue its regulation by enforcement mantra is bearish. The crypto market is struggling in the wake of the FTX collapse. The SEC cases against Ripple, Coinbase (COIN), and Binance need to end favorably to turn investor sentiment bullish.

US lawmakers must also address ongoing uncertainty about the future US crypto market landscape. A lack of a regulatory framework and anti-crypto rhetoric on Capitol Hill remain headwinds.

However, lingering hope of the US Courts upholding the Judge Torres ruling has cushioned the downside for XRP. Nonetheless, a Court ruling in favor of the SEC motion for interlocutory appeal will test investor resilience. There is always the risk of the Courts overturning the Judge Torres rulings on appeal, a bearish crypto event.

Beyond the SEC v Ripple case, investors also responded to US private sector PMI numbers. Weaker-than-expected US private sector PMIs eased expectations on further Fed interest rate hikes. The shift in investor sentiment was evident during the US session. XRP rebounded from session lows to end the day in positive territory.

The Thursday Session

The Ripple defense team has until September 1 to oppose the SEC motion for interlocutory appeal. We don’t expect Ripple to leave the SEC motion uncontested. We expect the SEC to respond to any Ripple opposition to the SEC filing.

The content of the Ripple opposition filing and SEC response will move the dial. However, SEC v Ripple case-related chatter will continue to dictate XRP price movements.

Beyond the SEC v Ripple case and the SEC appeal, the SEC v Binance and SEC v Coinbase cases will influence.

Considering investor sensitivity to the US economic indicators, Fed commentary from the Jackson Hole Symposium also needs consideration. Hawkish comments would test buyer appetite.

 

XRP Price Action

Daily Chart

The Daily Chart showed XRP/USD sitting above the $0.4920 – $0.4780 support band. After the Wednesday gain, XRP held above the 200-day EMA while sitting below the 50-day EMA, sending bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.

Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, 34.15 reflects bearish sentiment. The RSI aligns with the 50-day EMA supporting a fall through 200-day EMA to bring the $0.4920 – $0.4780 support band into play. However, an XRP hold above the 200-day EMA would give the bulls a run at the $0.5750 – $0.5900 resistance band and the 50-day EMA.

4-Hourly Chart

Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, XRP remains above the $0.4920 – $0.4780 support band. However, XRP sits below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, reaffirming the bearish near-term price signals.

The 50.99 14-4H RSI reflects bullish sentiment, with buying pressure outweighing selling pressure. Significantly, the RSI signals a move through the 50-day EMA to target the $0.5750 – $0.5900 resistance band. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave the $0.4920 – $0.4780 support band in play.