XRP News Today: Could SEC’s ETF Nod Signal Ripple Case Appeal Withdrawal? BTC at $96K

SEC Acknowledges Grayscale’s XRP ETF Application

The SEC acknowledged Grayscale’s XRP ETF application on Thursday, February 13. Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst James Seyffart stated:

“NEW: There it is – The SEC just acknowledged Grayscale and NYSE’s 19b-4 filing to list an XRP ETF. (this was mostly expected but officially means the clock will start soon for this and Dogecoin).”

The acknowledgment is not an approval for an XRP-spot ETF but brings XRP one step closer to entering into the US ETF market. The clock officially starts ticking when the SEC publishes the 19b-4 filing in the Federal Register, typically several days after acknowledgment.

Key timelines for the Grayscale application:

• The SEC has 45 days from the Federal Register publication date to approve or disapprove the application.
• If extended, the SEC can extend by 45 days, then 90 days, and finally 60 days, allowing for a maximum review period of 240 days.
• While a decision may not be forthcoming until October 2025, the SEC could approve or disapprove the application at any time during this period.

Investors are also waiting for the SEC to acknowledge 19b-4 applications from Bitwise, Canary Funds, 21Shares, and WisdomTree. The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) filed the 19b-4 applications on February 6. However, BlackRock (BLK) has yet to apply, raising questions about institutional demand for XRP-based exchange-traded products.

Notably, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has played a crucial role in the success of the US BTC-spot ETF market. Since launching on January 11, 2023, IBIT has recorded $40,852 million of net inflows compared with Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), the second-ranked BTC-spot ETF, with net inflows of $12,498 million.

SEC vs. Ripple Case: Does the SEC’s Acknowledgment Signal an Appeal Withdrawal?

The SEC’s acknowledgment could fuel speculation about the SEC potentially withdrawing its appeal against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling in the Ripple case. Until February 13, the agency had remained silent on its position vis-à-vis an XRP-spot ETF. The agency filed its appeal-related opening brief just days before Gary Gensler stepped down as SEC Chair.

Since Gensler’s departure, Binance and the SEC jointly filed a motion seeking a 60-day stay. The filing cited potential changes in crypto regulation under the SEC’s newly formed Crypto Task Force. The 60-day timeline suggests that acting Chair Mark Uyeda and Commissioner Hester Peirce may be awaiting Paul Atkins’ confirmation as SEC Chair before deciding on the Ripple case.

Former SEC lawyer John Reed Stark commented on the agency’s shift in enforcement strategy:

The SEC Crypto unit is Now Officially Dead and Buried. Per LinkedIn, the SEC’s ‘Crypto Assets and Cyber Unit,’ is now the ‘Cyber and Emerging Technologies Unit.’ It won’t be long before the SEC’s website reflects the new name. Stick a fork in SEC crypto-enforcement, it’s done.”

How Could an Appeal Withdrawal Impact Demand?

On Thursday, February 13, XRP rallied 3.54%, following Wednesday’s 2.51% gain, closing at $2.5616. XRP outperformed the broader market, which fell by 1.23% to a total crypto market cap of $3.14 trillion.

Progress toward a US XRP-spot ETF market and hopes for an appeal withdrawal boosted XRP demand.

Nevertheless, XRP remains well below the January 16 high of $3.3999 and its 2018 record high of $3.5505 as investors await an official withdrawal.

Key Price Scenarios:

• Bullish Case: If the SEC withdraws its appeal, XRP could surpass its all-time high of $3.5505.
• ETF Catalyst: Approval of an XRP-spot ETF may drive XRP toward $5, fueled by institutional inflows.
• Bearish Case: If the SEC proceeds with the appeal and rejects XRP-spot ETF applications, the token could fall below $1.50.

Click here to find out why analysts believe XRP could skyrocket—or crash—based on the SEC’s decision.

BTC-Spot ETF Market Outflows Weigh on Bitcoin

Beyond speculation about the SEC vs. Ripple case, US BTC-spot ETF market flow impacted bitcoin (BTC) demand. According to Farside Investors, flow data for February 13 included:

• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) reported net outflows of $94.5 million.
• ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) had net outflows of $52.7 million.

Excluding iShares Bitcoin Trust, the US BTC-spot ETF market had $183 million of total net outflows. Significantly, the spot ETF market faces a four-day outflow streak, keeping BTC below the $100k threshold.

Fading bets on an H1 2025 Fed rate cut weighed on BTC sentiment. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a June 25-basis point Fed rate cut has fallen from 45.7% on February 6 to 36.3% on February 13, following recent US inflation data.

Nevertheless, hopes for a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) have cushioned BTC’s downside. Several US states are progressing legislation to recognize BTC as a strategic reserve asset, potentially bolstering the case for a national SBR.

The Bitcoin Act: A Game-Changer?

The supply-demand balance could tilt firmly in BTC’s favor if Congress approves the Bitcoin Act. Senator Cynthia Lummis introduced the Bitcoin Act, proposing the US government purchases one million BTC over five years, with a mandatory holding period of 20 years.

Bitcoin Price Outlook

On Thursday, February 13, fell 1.24%, partially reversing Wednesday’s 2.17% gain to close at $96,664.

Beyond the progress toward a US SBR, traders should monitor:

• US Tariff policies and trade tensions.
• Upcoming US retail sales data.
• US BTC-Spot ETF Market Flow Trends.

Possible Scenarios:

• Bearish: Rising US tariffs, upbeat US retail sales, and a hawkish Fed could drag BTC toward $90,000.
• Bullish: Easing tariff jitters, weaker retail sales, and renewed bets on an H1 2025 Fed rate cut could drive BTC toward its all-time high of $109,312.

Market Outlook: Regulatory Developments Remain Key

Investors should track these key events:

1. The SEC’s decision on its Ripple case appeal.
2. US tariff policies and trade tensions.
3. The Fed’s monetary policy stance.
4. Progress on the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve legislation.

These factors will likely play a critical role in shaping institutional crypto adoption and market momentum.

Stay updated with our expert analysis of these developments and their implications for crypto markets. Explore the full analysis here.