Bitcoin (BTC) News Today: US Jobs Report and Creditor Repayments Sink BTC

BTC Tumbles in Broad-Based Crypto Sell-Off

On Friday, August 2, BTC tumbled 5.40%. Reversing a 0.99% gain from Thursday, August 1, BTC ended the session at $61,786. Significantly, BTC closed the session at the lowest level since July 14.

US Jobs Report Sends Riskier Assets into the Red

On Friday, the US Jobs Report sent US recession warnings. Wage growth slowed from 3.8% in June to 3.6% in July. Lower wage growth may reduce disposable income and adversely impact consumer spending. With private consumption contributing over 60%, waning consumer spending could affect the US economy.

An unexpected rise in the US unemployment rate from 4.1% in June to 4.3% in July also spooked investors.

The disappointing US Jobs Report followed Wednesday’s FOMC press conference, where Powell said that the labor market should not worsen, increasing sensitivity to the data.

US BTC-Spot ETF Market Raises Demand Concerns

On Friday, US BTC-spot ETF flow trends underscored the influence of the US economy on the crypto market.

According to Farside Investors:

• Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw net outflows of $49.9 million.
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) had net outflows of $104.1 million.
• ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) reported net outflows of $87.7 million and $29.4 million, respectively.
• Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) saw net inflows of $9.9 million.

Excluding flow data for iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the US BTC-spot ETF market saw total net outflows of $280.2 million.

Expert Views on the US Economy

Arch Capital Global Chief Economist Parker Ross commented on the US Jobs Report, saying,

“We’ve never seen a surge in the long-term unemployment rate like the current cycle (+23bps y/y) outside of recessions since the late 1940s.”

The US Jobs Report overshadowed news of MicroStrategy (MSTR) planning a $2 billion BTC buying spree.

MicroStrategy, Q2 Financial Results, and $2 Billion BTC Target

On Friday, MicroStrategy announced its quarterly financial results. Highlights included:

• Acquisition of 12,222 BTC since the beginning of Q2 2024 for $805.2 million.
• BTC holdings of 226,500 at a total cost of $8.3 billion or $36,821 per bitcoin as of July 2024.
• BTC yield of 12.2% year-to-date.
• Filing a registration statement for a new $2 billion at-the-market-equity offering program.

On Friday, MicroStrategy’s share price slid by 4.22%. Concerns about the US economy limited the impact of plans to acquire $2 billion in BTC.

Nonetheless, the $2 billion purchase plan could significantly reduce the oversupply risk from Genesis, Mt. Gox, and the US Government. Not all Mt. Gox and Genesis creditors will likely sell their crypto upon receipt.

Genesis Trading Raises Oversupply Risk

On Friday, news emerged of Genesis Trading (Genesis) beginning to repay its creditors.

Arkham Intelligence shared details of BTC and ETH transfers to creditors, saying,

“Wallets linked with Genesis Trading have moved 16.6K BTC ($1.1B) and 166.3K ETH ($521.1M) in the past hour – likely for in-kind repayments to creditors.”

These repayments coincided with Mt.Gox beginning to repay over 141,000 BTC to its creditors and the US government transferring $2 billion worth of BTC to exchanges.

Oversupply risk remains a BTC headwind.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

BTC sat below the 50-day EMA while hovering above the 200-day EMA. The EMAs sent bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price trends.

A BTC break above the $64,000 resistance level and the 50-day EMA would support a move toward the $69.000 resistance level. However, selling pressure could intensify at the $64,000 resistance level. The 50-day EMA is confluent with the resistance level.

US BTC-spot ETF flow data and BTC supply-related news require consideration.

On the other hand, a drop below the $60,365 support level and 200-day EMA could bring the $55,000 handle and July 5 low of $53,591 into play.

With a 40.08 14-Daily RSI reading, BTC could fall to the $55,000 handle before entering oversold territory.

Ethereum Analysis

ETH sat well below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bearish price signals.

A break above the $3,033 resistance level would support a move toward the 200-day EMA. A breakout from the 200-day EMA could give the bulls a run at the $3,244 resistance level.

US ETH-spot ETF market flow data and supply-demand trends require consideration.

Conversely, an ETH drop below the $2,800 handle could signal a fall toward the $2,664 support level.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading, 32.56, indicates an ETH drop to the $2,800 handle before entering oversold territory.