BTC at Risk of a Return to Sub-$30,000 on ETF Uncertainty

Key Insights:

• On Monday, BTC joined the broader market in the red for the second session, falling 0.40% to end the day at $30,259.
• SEC Chair Gary Gesner left the door open to an appeal of the SEC v Ripple ruling, weighing on investor sentiment.
• The near-term technical indicators remained bearish, signaling a return to sub-$30,000.

On Monday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.40%. Following a 0.27% loss on Sunday, BTC ended the day at $30,259. Notably, BTC visited sub-$30,000 for the first time since July 7.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

This morning, BTC was up 0.16% to $30,308. A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to an early low of $30,225 before rising to a high of $30,319.

Daily Chart

The Daily Chart showed BTC/USD hover below the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band but avoided sub-$30,000.

BTC/USD remained above the 50-day ($29,365) and 200-day ($26,671) EMAs, signaling bullish momentum over the near and longer term. Notably, the 50-day EMA continued to pull away from the 200-day EMA and reflected bullish momentum.

Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 52.92 reading signaled a bullish outlook and aligned with the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, supporting a move through the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band to retarget $32,000.

4-Hourly Chart

Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, the BTC/USD faces strong resistance at the $30,500 psychological level. BTC/USD sits below the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band and the 50-day EMA ($30,515) but above the 200-day EMA ($29,801), sending bearish near-term but bullish longer-term signals.

Significantly, the 50-day EMA narrowed on the 200-day EMA, signaling a return to sub-$30,000. However, a move through the 50-day EMA ($30,515) would support a breakout from the $30,750 – $31,250 resistance band to target $32,000.

The 14-4H RSI reading of 45.62 indicates a bearish stance and aligns with the 50-day EMA, with selling pressure outweighing buying pressure. Significantly, the RSI signals near-term bearish momentum and a return to sub-$30,000.

US Lawmaker Silence and SEC Chair Gensler Chatter Weighed

It was a quiet Monday session with no crypto events moving the dial. The lack of crypto events left the SEC v Ripple Court ruling-related chatter to draw interest.

Speaking at a National Press Club event, SEC Chair Gary Gensler expressed his disappointment over the SEC v Ripple ruling relating to Programmatic Sales, reportedly saying,

“We’re still looking at it and assessing that opinion.”

For investors hoping for the ruling to end the regulation-by-enforcement mantra, Gensler added the SEC would continue to bring firms that don’t comply with SEC rules into compliance, suggesting no end to the regulation-by-enforcement mantra that plagues the US digital asset space.

Chair of the House Financial Services Committee Patrick McHenry had this to say about SEC Chair Gary Gensler after the SEC v Ripple Court ruling,

“Democrats don’t have the votes to get their far-left environmental and social policy through Congress, so they are using the SEC to force their agenda on the American people. I will keep fighting to end Gary Gensler’s abuse of power.”

The Day Ahead

It is a quiet Tuesday session, with US economic indicators unlikely to impact investor sentiment. However, investors should continue to monitor the crypto news wires for SEC v Ripple-related chatter and significant crypto events.

After the SEC v Ripple ruling, ETF chatter, Binance, and Coinbase (COIN)-related news will need consideration.