EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Forecast: Dollar at 104.84, Inflation Figures in Focus

By:

Arslan Ali

Updated: May 31, 2024, 07:46 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

French Final Private Payrolls rose by 0.3%, exceeding expectations.
Dollar Index climbed to 104.845, up 0.08%, on positive market sentiment.
GBP/USD fell to 1.27177 despite better-than-expected housing data and mortgage approvals.

In this article:

EUR/USD

-0.10%

GBP/USD

-0.11%

Market Overview

On May 31, the French Final Private Payrolls increased by 0.3%, above expectations, while German Import Prices rose by 0.7%, higher than the forecasted 0.5%. However, German Retail Sales fell by 1.2%, significantly below the expected -0.2%.

The Dollar Index rose to $104.845, up 0.08%, supported by positive market sentiment ahead of upcoming US economic data releases. The GBP/USD fell to $1.27177, down 0.09%, despite better-than-expected Nationwide HPI at 0.4% and higher mortgage approvals at 62K.

Events Ahead

Looking ahead to the EUR/USD, attention will be on the French Consumer Spending, expected to decrease by 0.8%, and the French Preliminary CPI, forecasted to remain flat at 0.0%. The Core CPI Flash Estimate is expected to hold steady at 2.7%, while the CPI Flash Estimate is anticipated to rise to 2.5%.

The GBP/USD will be influenced by the M4 Money Supply and Net Lending to Individuals, with forecasts of 0.4% and 2.0B, respectively.

For the Dollar Index, all eyes will be on the upcoming Core PCE Price Index, expected to increase by 0.3%, and Personal Spending data, also expected to rise by 0.3%. FOMC Member Bostic’s speech could provide insights into future monetary policy.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar – Chart

The Dollar Index is currently priced at $104.845, up 0.08%. The pivot point is at $104.950. Immediate resistance levels are at $105.194, $105.458, and $105.657. On the downside, immediate support is at $104.595, with further support at $104.343 and $104.179.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is $104.790, while the 200-day EMA is $104.951, indicating potential resistance.

The technical outlook for the Dollar Index remains bearish below the pivot point of $104.950. Conversely, staying below $104.950 may lead to testing lower support levels, suggesting continued downward pressure.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The EUR/USD is currently priced at $1.08191, down 0.11%. The pivot point is at $1.08341. Immediate resistance levels are at $1.08585, $1.08889, and $1.09137. On the downside, immediate support is at $1.07918, with further supports at $1.07671 and $1.07398.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is $1.08352, indicating potential resistance, while the 200-day EMA is $1.08019. The technical outlook for EUR/USD remains bearish below the pivot point of $1.08341.

A break above this level could shift the bias to bullish, targeting higher resistance levels. Conversely, staying below $1.08341 may lead to testing lower support levels, suggesting continued downward pressure.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: TradingView

The GBP/USD is currently priced at $1.27177, down 0.09%. The pivot point is at $1.2691. Immediate resistance levels are at $1.2748, $1.2793, and $1.2836. On the downside, immediate support is at $1.2648, with further supports at $1.2615 and $1.2581.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is $1.2718, indicating potential resistance, while the 200-day EMA is $1.2634. The technical outlook for GBP/USD remains bullish above the pivot point of $1.2691.

A break below this level could drive a sharp selling trend. Market participants should monitor these key levels and technical indicators for potential trading opportunities.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.