Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – July 7, 2017 Forecast

August Comex Gold futures are trading lower shortly ahead of the regular session opening and the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report at 1230 GMT. Rising global interest rates are putting the pressure on gold prices.

The headline number of the NFP report is expected to show the economy added 175K new jobs in June. Some traders are looking for an even lower figure given Thursday’s disappointing ADP report. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3% and Average Hourly Earnings are expected to show a slightly increase from 0.2% to 0.3%.

A stronger-than expected NFP report is likely to increase the odds of another Fed rate hike later in the year so this news is likely to be bullish for Treasury yields and bearish for gold prices.

A weaker-than-expected NFP report could pressure yields and support gold.

Late in the session, the U.S. Federal Reserve will release its semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress at 1900 GMT. This will precede next week’s testimony by Chairwoman Janet Yellen.

All bets are off on gold being bearish if the situation in North Korea escalates.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing. A trade through $1216.50 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. This could drive gold prices into the March 10 bottom at $1201.40.

A trade through $1229.50 will change the minor trend to up.

The short-term range is $1260.00 to $1216.50. If there is a breakout over $1229.50 then the retracement zone at $1238.30 to $1243.40 will become the primary upside target.

Forecast

Based on the current price at $1220.90 and the earlier price action, the direction of August Comex gold is going to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending angle at $1224.00.

A sustained move under $1224.00 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could trigger a move into $1216.50. Taking out this minor bottom could generate enough downside momentum to challenge the long-term downtrending angle at $1210.80.

Crossing to the weak side of the downtrending angle at $1210.80 will put gold in a bearish position with $1201.40 the next target.

A sustained move over $1224.00 will signal the presence of buyers. This could lead to a quick test of the minor top at $1229.50.

Taking out $1229.50 could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the next targets coming in at $1238.30, $1242.00 and $1243.40.