Bitcoin (BTC) Rises 1.29% as It Decouples from Nasdaq and Gold in Volatile Week

Bitcoin Holds Above $80k Amid Heightened Market Volatility

Bitcoin (BTC) fell 0.48% on Saturday, April 5, partially reversing Friday’s 0.76% gain, closing at $83,424.

BTC demand waned amid fears of a full-blown global trade war, delayed Fed rate cuts, and recession risks. Yet, despite Saturday’s pullback, BTC decoupled from US equity markets and outperformed gold, marking a potentially significant shift in market dynamics.

The Nasdaq Composite Index tumbled 10.02% in the week ending April 4, while gold dropped 1.52%. In contrast, BTC has gained 1.29%.

Market intelligence platform Santiment observed:

“Social media has been buzzing with mentions of crypto’s ‘decoupling’ from stock markets, according to data from X, Reddit, Telegram, 4Chan, Farcaster, and BitcoinTalk. Following the S&P 500‘s -10.5% combined losses on Thursday and Friday alone, traders are optimistic that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are fairly insulated from the US & China tariffs that have rocked global economies.”

Santiment added:

“If the crypto markets are indeed becoming less and less reliant on stock markets, this would be an encouraging sign. Historically, most of cryptocurrency’s biggest bull cycles have come when there is zero (neither a negative or positive) correlation between the two sectors.”

US BTC-Spot ETF Market Sees Outflows Amid Market Uncertainty

While BTC trended higher, ETF outflows signaled lingering institutional caution, suggesting the rally may lack strong backing. Fed Chair Powell suggested potential delays to Fed rate cuts on Friday, April 4, another curveball for investors.

According to Farside Investors, weekly data through April 4 showed:

• WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund (BTCW) had net outflows of $44.6 million.
• iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw net outflows of $35.5 million.
• Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) reported net outflows of $24.1 million.
• ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) saw net outflows of $22.2 million.

Meanwhile, Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC), Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), and Franklin Bitcoin ETF (EZBC) logged net inflows. The US BTC-spot ETF market registered total net outflows of $165 million, ending a two-week inflow streak. This shift in flows placed pressure on BTC, which closed below the $85,000 mark for a third straight session.

BTC Price Outlook: Key Drivers

BTC’s near-term outlook will hinge on several crucial factors, including trade developments, macroeconomic data, the Bitcoin Act’s progress, and ETF flows.

• Bullish Scenario: De-escalation in the global trade war, softer US inflation, progress on the Bitcoin Act, and renewed ETF inflows may drive BTC toward its record high of $109,312.
• Bearish Scenario: Setbacks to the bill, an escalation in the global trade war, hotter US inflation, and continued ETF outflows could pull BTC toward the $70,000 level.

For deeper insights on macro data, regulatory developments, and ETF market flows, follow our analysis and forecasts here to manage crypto risks.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

Despite this week’s gains, BTC remains in a bearish technical setup, trading below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). These levels are sending negative price signals.

A break above the 200-day EMA and the $86,263 resistance level could signal a move higher toward the 50-day EMA. A decisive move through the 50-day EMA may bring the $90,742 resistance level into play.

On the downside, a drop below $80k would expose the March 11 low of $76,642. Further weakness may test the $73,641 support level.

With a 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 45.86, BTC has room to drop toward the March 11 low of $76,642 before entering oversold territory (RSI below 30).

Stay ahead of market trends by accessing real-time BTC price data and technical indicators here.

Ethereum Analysis

Meanwhile, ETH is facing selling pressure and continues to trade below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, underscoring its bearish bias.

An ETH breakout above $2,000 could signal a move toward the 50-day EMA. A sustained move above the 50-day EMA may bring the $2,308 resistance level into play.

Trends in ETH-spot ETF flows remain crucial for near-term price movements.

Conversely, if ETH falls below $1,750, the next target for bears would likely be $1,500.

The 14-period Daily RSI reading of 38.04 indicates ETH could drop below $1,750 before entering oversold territory. (RSI below 30).

Final Thoughts

BTC’s path to $100,000 remains uncertain amid global trade tensions, macroeconomic risks, Fed policy ambiguity, and legislative hurdles. However, ETF flows, US economic data, and regulatory progress will remain central to influencing market sentiment.

Stay ahead of market trends with real-time BTC price data and expert insights. Follow our live updates on BTC price movements here.