Gold (XAU) Price Forecast: Will PPI Data and Tariff Risks Push Prices to New Highs?

Gold Prices Push Higher as Rate Cut Bets and Trade Tensions Fuel Demand

Gold prices edged higher on Thursday, approaching record highs as traders positioned for potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and monitored rising trade tensions. Spot gold climbed, reaching $2,930.54 before retreating slightly, staying within striking distance of the all-time high at $2,956.31. A key higher bottom has formed at $2,880.25, reinforcing the market’s bullish structure.

At 10:53 GMT, XAU/USDXAU/USD is trading $2943.82, up $10.21 or +0.35%.

Gold Finds Support at Key Technical Levels

The gold market remains well-supported by two major price zones: $2910.32–$2895.29 and $2864.26–$2843.43. Additionally, the 50-day moving average at $2,822.97 has upheld the intermediate uptrend since early January. The presence of these technical supports suggests that dips are being met with buying interest, keeping bullish momentum intact.

Tariff Uncertainty and Inflation Data Support Gold’s Rally

Investor demand for gold remains strong as concerns over U.S. trade policy and inflation trends persist. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, including new duties on Chinese goods and potential levies on Canada and Mexico, have rattled global markets. Retaliatory measures from China and Canada have further fueled uncertainty, driving safe-haven flows into gold.

Meanwhile, inflation data released on Wednesday showed cooling consumer prices, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may begin cutting rates later this year. Historically, lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, boosting its appeal.

Macquarie Raises Gold Price Forecast to $3,150

Analysts at Macquarie have raised their gold price forecast to $3,150 per ounce for the third quarter, with a potential single-point peak of $3,500 later in the year. The bank also adjusted its silver outlook higher, citing the metal’s dual role as an investment asset and industrial commodity.

Market Forecast: Bullish Momentum Holds as Gold Eyes Record Highs

Gold remains in a strong uptrend, supported by technical buying, safe-haven demand, and expectations of Fed easing. If U.S. inflation data continues to signal cooling price pressures, rate-cut bets could gain further traction, supporting gold’s next breakout attempt above $2,956.31. However, a hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) report later today could trigger a short-term pullback. For now, the bullish bias remains intact, with key support levels likely to limit downside risks.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.