Gold (XAU) Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: Gold Hits Record $3,017 – Is a Mega Bull Run Beginning?

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) surged to a new all-time high of $3,017 in early European trading on Tuesday, fueled by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and rising geopolitical risks. Investors continue to favor gold as a hedge against uncertainty, with the market keenly awaiting the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision.

Silver (XAG/USD) followed suit, trading at $33.91, supported by strong industrial demand and safe-haven inflows. China’s industrial production rose 5.9% YoY in early 2025, reinforcing silver’s bullish momentum. However, resistance near $34.20 remains a key hurdle for further gains.

Fed Rate Cuts and Dollar Weakness Support Gold’s Surge

Despite a minor recovery, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remains under pressure near 103.50 following weaker economic data. February retail sales increased only 0.2%, missing the expected 0.7%, signaling softer consumer spending.

Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index declined to 57.9, its lowest since November 2022, fueling concerns about economic slowdown.

The FOMC decision on Wednesday is the market’s primary focus. While an immediate rate cut is unlikely, traders anticipate multiple reductions later in 2025, which would support gold’s upward momentum by lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

Geopolitical Uncertainty Drives Safe-Haven Demand

Global trade and geopolitical risks continue to shape gold’s trajectory. U.S. trade policy shifts, particularly the 25% tariff on Australian aluminum and steel, have added to economic concerns. Meanwhile, ongoing Russia-Ukraine negotiations and broader political uncertainty contribute to gold’s resilience as a store of value.

Despite gold’s bullish trend, China’s economic rebound is tempering further gains. With 4.0% year-over-year growth in retail sales and rising industrial output, improved economic conditions may limit immediate upside momentum.

Investors now await U.S. economic data releases, including Building Permits, Housing Starts, and Industrial Production, to gauge short-term market direction. However, the Fed’s policy stance remains the key factor influencing gold’s movement in the coming weeks.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold remains bullish above $3,000, with resistance at $3,029 and support at $2,980. A breakout could push prices higher, while a drop below key levels may trigger selling pressure.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is holding firm near $3,015, maintaining its bullish momentum within an upward channel on the 4-hour chart. The pivot point at $3,000.49 is a critical level—staying above it reinforces the buying trend, while a break below could trigger selling pressure. The 50-day EMA at $2,975 offers dynamic support, aligning with the broader bullish structure.

On the upside, immediate resistance stands at $3,029.60, with a successful breakout potentially pushing prices toward $3,050.91.

However, if $3,000 fails to hold, gold could slide toward $2,980.73, with deeper support at $2,956.33. For now, gold remains bullish above $3,000, but traders should watch for a volume-backed move to confirm the next directional trend.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is hovering around $33.91, slightly lower on the session but still holding above key support levels. The pivot point at $33.68 is crucial—remaining above it keeps the bullish bias intact, while a break below could lead to increased selling pressure. The 50-day EMA at $33.52 is offering dynamic support, reinforcing the broader uptrend.

On the upside, immediate resistance sits at $34.09, with a breakout potentially opening the door toward $34.47. However, if silver dips below $33.68, the next major support rests at $33.32, with further downside possible toward $32.96.

For now, silver remains in an upward channel, favoring buyers, but traders should watch for a decisive move above $34.09 to confirm bullish momentum.