Gold (XAU) Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: Will China’s Stimulus Slow Precious Metals Rally?

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) remains near its all-time high, trading around $2,989, after briefly crossing the $3,000 mark last week. The metal is struggling to attract strong buying interest but continues to find support from geopolitical risks and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Meanwhile, silver (XAG/USD) is trading at $33.69, down slightly after hitting an intraday low of $33.68. While a weaker U.S. dollar and global uncertainty are keeping safe-haven demand intact, profit-taking and improved risk sentiment in China have capped further gains.

Fed Rate Speculation and Weak Dollar Keep Gold Afloat

The U.S. dollar remains under pressure, trading near multi-month lows, as economic data signals growing uncertainty. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for March dropped to 57.9, its lowest reading since November 2022. Additionally, five-year consumer inflation expectations rose to 3.9%, further clouding the economic outlook.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is hovering near 103.70, reflecting weaker investor confidence. This has made gold more attractive to traders looking for a hedge against currency depreciation.

At the same time, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut are rising. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is now a 75% chance the Fed will cut rates by June. Lower interest rates typically boost gold prices, as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

Geopolitical Risks and Trade Tensions Fuel Safe-Haven Demand

Gold’s safe-haven appeal remains strong amid rising geopolitical instability. Over the weekend, Yemen’s Houthi rebels launched a major attack on U.S. naval forces in the Red Sea, prompting continued U.S. military action. Concerns over global trade disruptions have added to gold’s support.

Additionally, U.S. trade policies are fueling economic uncertainty. Former President Donald Trump’s decision to maintain a 25% tariff on Australian aluminum and steel has raised concerns over global trade relations.

These developments have strengthened gold’s demand as investors seek stability in uncertain times.

China’s Economic Stimulus Slows Gold’s Momentum

On the flip side, China’s latest economic stimulus measures are limiting gold’s gains. Beijing announced new plans to boost domestic consumption and ease restrictions in the property sector, lifting investor sentiment and boosting riskier assets like stocks.

As a result, some investors are rotating out of gold, limiting its upside momentum despite broader uncertainty.

Looking ahead, traders will be closely watching Monday’s U.S. economic releases, including Retail Sales and the Empire State Manufacturing Index, for further economic cues. However, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision on Wednesday remains the key event that could drive gold’s next major move.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold consolidates near $2,989, with $3,005 as key resistance and $2,979 as support. Silver holds $33.82, eyeing $34.09 for upside, while $33.68 remains a crucial support level.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is hovering around $2,989.65, consolidating within a narrow range as traders assess market direction. The pivot point at $2,979.79 serves as a key threshold—holding above it keeps the bullish bias intact, while a break lower could invite sellers toward $2,970.85 and $2,956.33.

On the upside, $3,005.15 is the first major resistance, with $3,020.55 as the next target if momentum builds. The 50-day EMA at $2,958.28 is offering dynamic support, reinforcing the broader uptrend.

For now, gold remains in wait-and-see mode, consolidating ahead of potential catalysts. A decisive break above $3,005.15 could open the door for a rally, while a dip below $2,979.79 may trigger sharper downside pressure.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is inching higher at $33.82, holding a 0.02% gain as it tests key resistance levels. The pivot point at $33.68 remains a critical support—staying above this keeps silver in bullish territory, while a break lower could send prices toward $33.32 and $32.96.

On the upside, $34.09 is the next test for buyers, with $34.47 as the key breakout zone that could accelerate gains. The 50-day EMA at $33.35 is providing dynamic support, reinforcing the upward trendline.

For now, silver’s trend remains intact, but a close below $33.68 could shift momentum. If bulls hold control, a push past $34.09 could set the stage for further gains.