Just as CPI Eases, Tariffs Spark Fresh Inflation Fears—Is the Fed Cornered?

Inflation Slows—But Tariffs and Fed Uncertainty Cloud the Outlook

U.S. inflation had shown signs of easing in early 2025, but new tariffs and policy uncertainty are raising fresh risks for traders. With March CPI data expected to confirm a cooling trend, markets are now recalibrating for the inflationary fallout of sweeping trade measures and how the Federal Reserve may respond.

Inflation Was Cooling Before Tariffs Hit

The March CPI was projected to show annual inflation falling to 2.6%, down from 2.8% in February. Core inflation was expected to dip slightly to 3.0%. Slowing energy and gasoline prices helped drive this moderation, with month-over-month gains seen at just 0.1% headline and 0.3% core. These figures signaled continued progress toward the Fed’s 2% target and reinforced the post-pandemic disinflation trend. But goods prices had already begun firming in February and March, raising early concerns that the cooling trend could reverse as new policies took effect.

Tariffs Add Direct and Indirect Price Pressures

The economic landscape changed significantly with the implementation of President Trump’s tariffs, including a 20% levy on Chinese goods, steel and aluminum duties, and auto tariffs effective April 4. Additional “reciprocal” tariffs on a broad list of trading partners added to the inflation outlook. UBS warned that inflation could peak near 5% if the measures are fully enforced. Capital Economics offered a more tempered view, seeing a likely top around 4%.

Tariffs are expected to push up prices through cost increases on imports and domestic supply chains. Early inflationary signs were already visible in categories like apparel, electronics, and autos. Retaliation from China and the EU has also escalated, though the White House briefly cut some tariffs to 10% in response to global outcry.

The Fed Faces a No-Win Policy Environment

The Fed is now caught between slower growth and resurgent inflation. Prior to the tariff news, markets had priced in a rate cut cycle beginning by midyear. Traders now see a 33% chance of a May cut and a 63% chance of four by year-end. However, Chair Powell has signaled a cautious stance, citing uncertainty and urging patience. Fed minutes acknowledged the inflationary impact of tariffs and reported that some companies were already passing along higher costs.

Market Forecast

Inflation’s recent cooldown may soon give way to a tariff-driven surge in prices. With the Fed reluctant to act too soon, traders should prepare for higher consumer costs, more volatility, and increased sensitivity to upcoming CPI and Fed decision dates. A wait-and-see approach remains the central bank’s posture, but market risks are skewing higher.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.