Key Insights:

• Ripple (XRP) price remained rooted, just below the $0.50 mark on Monday, October 16, 2023, despite a sizable upswing in the broader crypto markets.
• A vital on-chain metric has highlighted how changes in crypto whales’ trading activity on the XRP Ledger network could be holding back prices. 
• Technical indicators show XRP’s prolonged consolidation phase could persist even as Bitcoin and other mega-cap altcoins edge toward double-digit gains. 

Ripple (XRP) price remained rooted below $0.50 on Monday despite a sizable upswing in the broader crypto markets. A vital on-chain metric has highlighted how changes in crypto whales’ trading activity on the XRP Ledger network could be holding back prices. 

XRP Whale Trading Activity Enters 3rd Month of Decline

XRP price performance over the past month has been unimpressive compared to the rest of the crypto. While the global XRP capitalization is up 3% in the last 30-days, the XRP price has declined by 1%. 

Events unfolding this week show that XRP is not showing real signs of catching up to the recent bullish wave across the industry. While Bitcoin and Bitcoin have scored 5% and 4% gains, respectively, XRP has barely moved 2% and remains stuck below the psychological $0.50 resistance. 

On-chain data shows the persistent decline in whale trading activity could be a major reason XRP price is behind the industry pace. Crypto whales on the XRP Ledger network have been tuning down their trading activity since the victory over the SEC back in mid-July. 

As depicted below, XRP has recorded a regressively lower high each month since July. The daily peak XRP Whale Transaction count for July was 2,708 on the 14th. But since then, the peaks for August, September, and October have gradually declined from 1,185 and 1,062 to 761 whale transactions, respectively.

Whale Transaction Count sums up the daily number of transactions that exceed $100,000 on a blockchain network. Whale transactions are important for a cryptocurrency ecosystem as they inject much-needed market liquidity, which enables investors to execute trades efficiently and at favorable prices.   

Unsurprisingly, the historical trends in the chart above show how previous XRP price rallies were closely correlated to spikes in Whale Transaction counts. 

In summary, the on-chain analysis suggests XRP price could continue lagging behind industry trends until whales return to action. 

XRP Price Prediction: Long Way from $0.55

With XRP currently valued at $0.49, the daily-time frame technical analysis provides essential insights into its potential upcoming price movements. 

The Bollinger Bands (SMA-20) average suggests that the immediate resistance level at $0.51 could prove daunting for the bulls. However, if the bulls flip $0.51, that next obstacle at $0.54 should be closely monitored. 

Conversely, if the bears seize control, XRP could generate initial buying interest at $0.47. In the case of a larger downtrend, the $0.45 could be a much more significant support level.