Silver (XAG) Forecast: Bulls Defend Support, But Gold Still Commands the Spotlight

Silver Stuck in a Range While Traders Watch for a Break

Silver is slightly lower on Thursday. While gold keeps grabbing headlines with record highs, silver’s still boxed in. Lack of fresh buying interest, weak industrial demand expectations, and heavy macro uncertainty are keeping a lid on rallies. Without a strong story or a new driver, silver’s just not attracting serious capital.

At 12:06 GMT, XAGUSD is trading $30.98, down $0.04 or -0.13%.

Key Levels Still Holding, But Resistance Is Tight

Support between $28.40 and $28.31 has held up well—it’s where buyers have consistently stepped in. That zone’s become a firm line in the sand. But overhead, things get tough. Resistance starts at $30.90, the 200-day moving average. The key pivot is $31.45—break above that, and momentum funds could get involved, targeting $32.47 next. But unless that breakout comes with real volume or a shift in the macro picture, any strength could get sold into fast.

China Demand Worries Weigh on the Tape

Silver’s tied to industrial use, and that’s where the cracks are showing. Traders are nervous about China—the biggest player in global industrial metals. The latest round of U.S. tariffs, including 104% duties on Chinese goods, is stirring up recession risk. If China’s factories slow or export data misses, physical demand for silver could slump. That’s keeping traders on edge. Unlike gold, which thrives on fear and macro stress, silver needs the real economy to be firing on all cylinders.

Gold’s Rally Leaves Silver Behind

Gold’s had a monster run—ripping past $3,000 and printing all-time highs at $3,167.57. It’s riding tailwinds from a falling dollar, inflows into ETFs, and a bond market that’s losing its safe-haven appeal. But silver’s not getting the same treatment. It’s still seen as the underdog—lacking a clean macro narrative. That sentiment gap is real, and unless silver finds its own driver, it’ll continue to play second fiddle.

Short-Term View: Rangebound Until Something Gives

Right now, silver’s neutral to mildly bullish. The base is solid, but upside follow-through is lacking. A break above $31.45 could change the tone fast—especially if China surprises with stronger demand or if gold’s rally starts pulling silver along. Until then, rangebound trade is the base case. Dips are being bought, but rallies are sold just as quickly. It’s a coiled market—but it’s going to take a spark to get it moving.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.