US Dollar Price Forecast: CPI Figures in Focus—Gold, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD Outlook

US Dollar Holds Steady Ahead of NFP; Gold Eyes Powell’s Speech

The US dollar remains stable as markets brace for Fed Chair Powell’s speech later today. Traders will look for hints on future monetary policy amid softening economic data. The market awaits the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report this Friday.

Expectations are for a modest 144K increase in employment, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.2%. Any deviations could significantly impact the dollar’s trajectory and gold’s safe-haven appeal.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis 

The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at $100.367, down 0.03%, reflecting slight bearish momentum. The index is positioned just below its pivot point at $100.486, signaling potential downside risk.

Immediate support is at $100.321, followed by $100.168 and $100.028. A drop below these levels could intensify selling pressure.

On the upside, resistance levels are noted at $100.617, $100.763, and $100.886. For bulls, a break above $100.486 would be essential to shift momentum back in their favor.

The 50-day EMA at $100.537 and the 200-day EMA at $100.731 suggest that the dollar might face stiff resistance ahead, keeping the bearish sentiment intact unless the price climbs above $100.537.

Gold Technical Forecast

Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $2,656.10, down 0.09%. Immediate support is at $2,647.30, with resistance at $2,665.87.

A break below $2,647.30 may push gold to test the 200-day EMA at $2,628.98. Clearing $2,665.87 is needed to shift sentiment bullish.

GBP Gains as UK GDP and Mortgage Approvals Beat Forecasts

The British pound (GBP) gained strength following a series of positive economic releases. The UK’s Final GDP rose by 0.5% for Q2, surpassing expectations, while Mortgage Approvals reached 65K, beating the forecast of 64K.

The Current Account deficit narrowed to £-28.4B from a previous £-32.5B, further supporting the sterling. These strong figures provide a temporary boost to GBP amid ongoing concerns about the broader economic outlook.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast

The GBP/USD is trading at $1.33939, up 0.17%, signaling a mild bullish tone. The pair is comfortably above its pivot point at $1.33827, indicating support at this level.

The 50-day EMA at $1.33826 aligns closely with the pivot, reinforcing it as a key short-term threshold. Immediate resistance sits at $1.34271, followed by $1.34554 and $1.34805. A break above $1.34271 could trigger further gains.

On the downside, immediate support is at $1.33594, with next levels at $1.33348 and $1.33120. The 200-day EMA at $1.33257 suggests a strong support zone. Watch for a move below $1.33827 to shift the sentiment back to bearish territory, inviting potential short positions.

Euro Steadies Ahead of Lagarde’s Speech; CPI in Focus

The euro (EUR) remains stable as traders digest mixed inflation data from Germany and Italy.

German Import Prices fell by 0.4%, while German Preliminary CPI showed a slight 0.1% increase, countering expectations of a decline. Meanwhile, Italian CPI dropped by 0.2%, aligning with forecasts.

Investors are now focused on European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde’s speech, which will be later today, looking for hints on future policy shifts amid subdued inflationary pressures across the Eurozone.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

The EUR/USD pair currently trades at $1.11695, showing a modest gain of 0.03%. The pair is holding just above the pivot point of $1.11558, suggesting a neutral to bullish sentiment.

Key resistance levels to watch are $1.11729, $1.11890, and $1.12032, while immediate support stands at $1.11391, followed by $1.11221 and $1.11047.

A break above $1.11729 could open the door to further upside, while a dip below $1.11558 might trigger a short-term bearish shift.

The 50-day EMA at $1.11627 and the 200-day EMA at $1.11454 indicate a stable trend, making the $1.11558 level a critical point for upcoming moves.