XRP News: Speculation About an SEC Appeal of the Programmatic Sales Ruling Hit XRP

Key Insights:

• XRP fell by 0.66% on Wednesday, ending the session at $0.5554.
• Fear of the SEC appealing the Programmatic Sales ruling in the ongoing SEC v Ripple case contributed to the session loss.
• On Thursday, the SEC cases against Ripple and Coinbase will be focal points.

The Wednesday Overview

On Wednesday, XRP declined by 0.66%. Partially reversing a 2.06% gain from Tuesday, XRP ended the day at $0.5554.

Settlement Speculation Leaves XRP on the Defensive

The market appetite for XRP turned negative on Wednesday. Optimism of a settlement in the ongoing SEC v Ripple case waned. Sentiment soured as market participants debated the chances of the SEC playing a willing participant in remedial talks.

Amicus Curiae attorney and CryptoLaw US founder John E. Deaton shared his views on remedial talks, saying,

“I do not believe there has been a single serious conversation regarding settlement between Ripple, Brad Garlinghouse, Chris Larsen, and the SEC.”

Deaton elaborated, saying,

“I believe Ripple will be successful in cutting the $770M figure down drastically. This isn’t a fraud case. The goal is to reach an appropriate fine against Ripple for engaging in transactions that qualified as the sale of unregistered securities but sold in the context of a new asset that other federal agencies declared ‘virtual currencies’.”

Providing context to the history of Ripple and its brushes with US regulators, Deaton discussed the Ripple settlement with FinCEN and the DoJ in 2015. FinCen and the DoJ labeled XRP a convertible virtual currency, placing Ripple under the purview of banking, not securities laws.

Notably, the Fed Chair, the SEC Chair, Secretary of the Treasury reportedly classified BTC, ETH, LTC, and XRP as virtual currencies in 2019.

The infamous Bill Hinman speech in 2018 sent mixed signals, with Hinman insinuating that XRP was a security. Deaton highlighted that SEC enforcement lawyers could purchase and trade XRP until 2019.

Considering the Hinman speech, the Hinman speech-related documents, and the classification of XRP until 2019, Deaton concluded,

“I don’t think Judge Torres will be out to hurt Ripple with these facts.”

November 9: Contested or Uncontested Briefing Schedule

On Tuesday, presiding Judge Analisa Torres ordered,

“By November 9, 2023, the parties shall jointly propose a briefing schedule with regards to remedies, or, if the parties cannot agree, shall jointly request that the Court set a briefing schedule.”

If they avoid a court-set briefing schedule, it suggests sincerity on the part of the SEC to settle the case. However, uncertainty over the SEC’s intent to progress to a settlement lingers.

Reasons for a quick settlement could include,

• The SEC intends to appeal the Programmatic Sales ruling on the conclusion to the case. Ripple would acknowledge wrongdoing, pay a penalty, and then face the prospect of an appeal and the associated uncertainty.
• Avoid dragging the Hinman documents through the public arena.
• Reach a settlement over fears Judge Katherine P. Failla grants the Coinbase (COIN) motion to dismiss (MTD) in the SEC v Coinbase case.

In June 2023, the SEC charged Coinbase for allegedly operating as an unregistered securities exchange, broker, and clearing agency. Other charges included the unregistered offering and selling of securities in connection with its staking-as-a-service program.

Activity in the SEC v Coinbase case heated up this week, putting the SEC v Coinbase case center stage.

XRP Price Action

Daily Chart

XRP remained above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming bullish price signals. The 50-day EMA continued to converge on the 200-day EMA.

A move through the trend line would give the bulls a run at the $0.5835 resistance level. Progress toward an SEC v Ripple settlement would fuel buyer demand for XRP. However, the threat of the SEC appealing the Programmatic Sales ruling would test buyer appetite.

An XRP fall through the $0.5470 support level would bring the 50-day and 200-day EMAs into view.

The 66.74 14-day RSI reading indicates a move through the trend line before entering overbought territory.

4-Hourly Chart

In the 4-hourly Chart, XRP holds above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, reaffirming bullish price signals.

An XRP break above the trend line would support a move toward the $0.5835 resistance level.

However, a fall through the $0.5470 support level would bring the 50-day EMA into play.

The 4-hourly RSI, with a reading of 62.74, suggests an XRP move to the trend line before entering overbought territory.