XRP News Today: Ripple vs. SEC – Settlement Talks Heat Up Before Key Deadline

SEC vs. Ripple: Fresh Speculation About an Appeal Withdrawal and Settlement

Speculation about a potential SEC withdrawal in the Ripple case intensified on Monday, March 17, as the deadline for Ripple’s appeal-related reply brief filing deadline nears.

Crypto commentator Andrew ‘AP_Abacus’ Parish fueled speculation with a post on X (formerly Twitter):

“UPDATE: *two* SEC sources believe Ripple case is very close to ending. Some expected outcomes:

• Expect XRP to get serious commodity consideration.

• Greatly reduced fine; GREATLY reduced.

• New leadership knows this case and how they handle it is a big deal; precedent.”

Amicus Curiae attorney John E. Deaton shared Parish’s post, adding weight to the claim within the crypto community.

Notably, former Fox Business journalist Eleanor Terrett had previously cited two SEC sources on March 12, stating:

“My understanding is that the delay in reaching an agreement is due to Ripple’s legal team negotiating more favorable terms regarding the August district court ruling, which imposed a $125M fine on the company and included a permanent injunction preventing the company from selling XRP to institutional investors.”

Speculation about the SEC withdrawing its appeal could intensify in the coming sessions. If the SEC decides to withdraw before Ripple’s appeal-related reply brief filing deadline of April 16, it could mark a significant turning point in the case.

While a potential SEC withdrawal remains one of the most significant catalysts for XRP, investor reaction was muted as they await official confirmation. Meanwhile, lowering the $125 million fine and vacating Judge Torres’ injunction, requiring Ripple to comply with Section 5 of the US Securities Act, would be an added boost.

XRP Price Outlook: Withdrawals, Settlements, and XRP-Spot ETFs

On Monday, March 17, XRP gained 1.96%, partially reversing Sunday’s 4.07% slide to close at $2.3402. XRP tracked the broader crypto market, which rose 1.85%, taking the total market cap to $2.7 trillion.

However, the SEC’s ongoing silence on its appeal strategy kept XRP well below its January peak of $3.3999 and the all-time high of $3.5505 (Binance exchange).

An appeal withdrawal could improve the regulatory environment, potentially increasing the chances of an XRP-spot ETF approval before the October deadline.

Since launching in January 2024, the US BTC-spot ETF market has seen total net inflows of $35.408 billion, supporting BTC’s rise to a record high of $109,312. A similar supply-demand shift for XRP could see the token break past its $3.5505 all-time high and potentially toward $5.

Key factors influencing XRP’s price outlook:

• SEC Appeal Strategy: An appeal withdrawal could drive XRP past $3.55, while prolonged legal uncertainty might push prices below $1.50.
• XRP-Spot ETF Prospects: Approval of an XRP-spot ETF could spark institutional inflows, supporting a move toward $5. However, legal hurdles could delay approval.
• Macro Risks: Rising trade tensions and a hawkish Fed could pressure XRP toward the February low of $1.7938 while easing tensions and a dovish Fed could fuel a recovery toward $2.50.

Read expert analysis on what could drive XRP to new highs here.

Bitcoin Steadies As US Recession Fears Ease

XRP’s gains coincided with bitcoin (BTC) stabilizing after its March 11 low of $76,642. The US economy was in the spotlight on March 17 amid lingering recession fears.

Retail sales rose 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) in February, recovering from a 1.2% decline in January. Additionally, the retail sales control group—which excludes volatile components such as car sales, building materials, and gas stations—increased by 1%, reversing January’s 1% drop.

Since private consumption accounts for over 60% of US GDP, the rebound in retail sales helped ease recession concerns.

BTC initially fell to a session low of $82,487 before recovering to $84,770 in response to the data.

Jeroen Blokland, founder of the Blokland Smart Multi-Asset Fund, commented on Monday’s retail sales report:

“US retail sales rose 0.2% in February, less than the expected 0.6%. Given rising investor anxiety about a US recession and tepid market sentiment in recent weeks, one may have expected a further market decline. However, ‘control group’ retail sales, which exclude volatile components like car sales, building materials, and gas stations, grew by 1.0% last month. This was significantly higher than the expected 0.4%.”

Regarding the timing of a US recession, Blokland concluded:

“Unless we see signs that US consumers will stop spending, the next recession may take a while.”

According to Kalshi, the chances of a 2025 US recession dropped to 38% on March 17, down from 41% before the retail sales data.

Bitcoin Price Scenarios: Key Levels to Watch

On March 17, BTC gained 1.70%, partially reversing Sunday’s 2.12%, closing at $84,018. Despite Monday’s gain, BTC remained below the crucial $100k level as investors assessed the chances of Congress passing the Bitcoin Act.

Senator Cynthia Lummis reintroduced the Bitcoin Act on March 11. If approved, the US administration could purchase one million BTC over five years and hold it for a mandatory 20-year period. Such an outcome could drastically shift BTC’s supply-demand dynamics, potentially driving fresh all-time highs.

Potential BTC price scenarios:

• Bearish: Escalating trade tensions, a hawkish Fed, opposition to the Bitcoin Act, and ETF outflows could send BTC toward $70,000.
• Bullish: Easing trade tensions, a dovish Fed, growing Bitcoin Act support, and renewed ETF inflows could push BTC toward $109,312.

Market Outlook: Key Drivers

Several macroeconomic and regulatory developments could influence crypto market trends in the coming weeks:

• SEC Appeal Decision: An SEC withdrawal could trigger a broad crypto rally.
• US Tariff Policy: Higher tariffs could prompt the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance, increasing recession risks.
• Strategic BTC Reserve: Government support for the Bitcoin Act could boost institutional adoption.
• BTC-Spot ETF Flows: Institutional demand remains a key price driver.

An SEC appeal withdrawal could help mitigate macro risks, setting the stage for an XRP breakout. However, long-term institutional confidence will depend on greater US regulatory clarity.

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