Economic News

The risk of policy mistakes has increased as China’s authorities try to tackle financial imbalances, including high local government debt, while shifting towards a consumption-led growth model.

The Turkish central bank’s unexpectedly hawkish shift in policy helps rebuild credibility in inflation targeting but fast-rising consumer prices will test the commitment to the current monetary stance.

Scope Ratings senior writer Keith Mullin interviews Dennis Shen, lead analyst for Greece, after Scope Ratings’ upgrade of Greece to an investment-grade (IG) rating of BBB-.

Scope Ratings has never rated the United States AAA. Ever since the agency published AA ratings on the US in September of 2017, Scope has never rated the borrower higher than this level.

High headline inflation will continue to decline in the 11 EU countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE-11) but tight monetary policy and weak external demand are muting the economic recovery.

Italy’s high public debt, elevated annual gross financing needs around 25% of GDP, and rising interest costs are a major rating constraint, underscoring need for multi-year fiscal consolidation.

A curtailed currency devaluation and slow privatisations cloud the outlook for stabilising Egypt’s external finances. Meeting IMF conditions is critical for shoring up reserves and investor confidence.

Scope Ratings has revised up its 2023 global growth forecast modestly to 2.9% but has cut its 2024 forecast to 3%. More downside rating actions than upside are expected in the second half of this year.

Distressed African countries risk having weaker credit profiles for longer unless there are better co-ordinated debt restructurings. Any improvements need to overcome burden-sharing among more diverse creditor groups.

Turkish President Erdoğan has begun his new five-year term with unresolved economic challenges. Downside risks remain for the country’s credit ratings without a sustained change in economic governance.

New legal action by the EU against Poland highlights persistent governance challenges, which together with elevated core inflation are weakening the country’s medium-term credit outlook.

Germany’s economy will return to modest growth in the second half of this year, but elevated inflation and volatile net exports will ensure the recovery remains weak at least until 2024.

Turkey’s economy remains exposed to a disorderly adjustment following President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s election victory, putting pressure on the lira and the country’s external accounts.

The policy continuity stemming from an expected re-election of New Democracy and a longer-run continuation of recent progress would support Greece’s creditworthiness.

With the presidential election heading to a run-off vote, Turkey faces multiple hurdles to recalibrate post-election economic policy to prevent deeper balance-of-payments problems and stabilise the lira.

Policy reversal or consolidation? Turkey needs the former while Egypt needs the latter if the two middle-income countries are to avoid deeper balance-of-payments problems amid elevated global rates.

Ukraine will likely suspend foreign debt service again by mid-2024 while debt forgiveness is probable medium run. However, the creditworthiness of Ukraine’s domestic debt has improved.

By Andrew Mills, Ghaida Ghantous and Aziz El Yaakoubi

BEIJING (Reuters) – China foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin on Tuesday disputed U.S. claims of a Chinese “secret police station” in New York.

By Winni Zhou and Tom Westbrook SHANGHAI/SINGAPORE (Reuters) – Violet Zhu, a Shanghai-based electronic components exporter, has been attending jewellery auctions and chatting on social media forums on the subject this year, looking to invest in rubies and diamonds.