ETH Bulls Eye $1,900 to Bring $2,000 Back into Play on ETF News

Key Insights:

• On Monday, ETH tracked the broader market into the red, falling 2.05% to end the day at $1,860.
• Staking statistics and SEC v Binance-related news weighed on investor sentiment.
• However, the technical indicators remain bullish, signaling a return to $2,000.

Ethereum (ETH) fell by 2.05% on Monday. Reversing a 1.23% gain from Sunday, ETH ended the day at $1,870. Significantly, ETH avoided sub-$1,800 for the fifth consecutive session.

After a choppy morning, ETH rose to an early afternoon high of $1,909. Falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,929, ETH fell to a late afternoon low of $1,840. ETH fell through the First Major Support Level at $1,870. However, the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,841 delivered a cushion.

SEC v Binance and ETF News Delivered a Choppy Start to the Week

It was a busy Monday session. While there was no Ethereum network-related news to move the dial, the crypto news wires provided directions throughout the session.

News of The Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC) allowing clients to trade BTC and ETH exchange-traded funds (ETFs) was bullish. Significantly, HSBC became the first bank to support crypto-ETF trading on the Island as the Island woos the crypto community.

However, SEC v Binance news was bearish. On Monday, presiding Judge Amy Berman Jackson denied the defendants’ motion to prevent the SEC from making misleading public statements about the case.

It was bad news for the Binance team, which aimed at blocking the SEC from making public statements about the case.

Staking Statistics Remain Bearish Despite Slump in Withdrawals

According to CryptoQuant, staking inflows increased from 44,352 ETH on Sunday to 63,456 on Monday. However, ETH staking inflows remained well below the bullish 100,000 ETH threshold.

Staking APRs, investor concerns over an SEC crackdown on staking activity, and the bearish crypto session left inflows at sub-100,000.

The overnight withdrawal profile was relatively bearish, with principal withdrawals at above-normal levels. However, withdrawal projections for the morning session were bullish. Projections show principal ETH withdrawals will fall to below-normal levels.

On Monday, the net ETH staking balance stood at a 19,780 ETH deficit (+192.78% over 24 hours), equivalent to a $37.59 million deficit. Deposits totaled zero versus withdrawals of 19,780 ETH.

According to TokenUnlocks, total pending withdrawals stood at 23,760 ETH, equivalent to approximately $44.33 million. Notably, the staking APR stood at 5.80%, down 1.02% over 24 hours. The downward trend in the staking APR remains a drag for staking inflows and is ETH price negative.

The Day Ahead

It is a busier Tuesday session. US economic indicators will impact investor sentiment this afternoon. US core durable goods orders and consumer confidence figures will move the dial. We expect a slide in the CB Consumer Confidence Index to sub-100 to test buyer appetite.

However, Fed chatter and the crypto news wires will also provide direction. Crypto-ETF-related chatter and SEC v Ripple Court rulings would garner plenty of interest.

Investors should also track SEC v Binance and SEC v Coinbase (COIN) news updates. On Monday, Binance lost an early motion that weighed on buyer appetite. We expect similar responses to rulings throughout the trial.

Ethereum Price Action

This morning, ETH was up 0.44% to $1,868. A mixed start to the day saw ETH fall to an early low of $1,856 before rising to a high of $1,868.

ETH Technical Indicators

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was bullish signals. Ethereum sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $1,850. The 50-day EMA pulled further away from the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A hold above the 50-day EMA ($1,850) would support a breakout from R1 ($1,899) to target R2 ($1,939) and $1,950. However, a fall through the 50-day EMA ($1,850) would bring S1 ($1,830) and the 100-day ($1,825) and 200-day ($1,820) EMAs into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send bearish signals.

Resistance & Support Level